{"id":2893,"date":"2022-10-31T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autogenai.dsstaging2.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/"},"modified":"2025-06-10T18:41:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T18:41:19","slug":"a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/","title":{"rendered":"A Basic Theoretical Framework For Investment in Bid Teams"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Overview_and_simple_example\" >Overview and simple example:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Simplifying_assumptions\" >Simplifying assumptions:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#A_worked_example\" >A worked example<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Increasing_investment_increasing_return\" >Increasing investment, increasing return<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Approximating_the_average_margin_on_a_won_contract\" >Approximating the average margin on a won contract<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#The_number_of_won_contracts_YP_The_number_of_contracts_bid_multiplied_by_the_probability_of_winning\" >The number of won contracts = YP (The number of contracts bid multiplied by the probability of winning)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Basic_Conclusion\" >Basic Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Further_Work\" >Further Work<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Overview_and_simple_example-2\" >Overview and simple example:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Simplifying_assumptions-2\" >Simplifying assumptions:<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#A_worked_example-2\" >A worked example<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Increasing_investment_increasing_return-2\" >Increasing investment, increasing return<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Approximating_the_average_margin_on_a_won_contract-2\" >Approximating the average margin on a won contract<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#The_number_of_won_contracts_YP_The_number_of_contracts_bid_multiplied_by_the_probability_of_winning-2\" >The number of won contracts = YP (The number of contracts bid multiplied by the probability of winning)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Basic_Conclusion-2\" >Basic Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/autogenai.com\/uk\/blog\/a-basic-theoretical-framework-for-investment-in-bid-teams\/#Further_Work-2\" >Further Work<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Overview_and_simple_example\"><\/span>Overview and simple example:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To justify a \u00a3250,000 increase in investment in a typical big bidding function in a large corporate requires either:<\/p>\n<p>1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0an increase in winning percentage of less than 1%; or<\/p>\n<p>2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0for the bidding function to be able to produce fewer than 10 extra bids a year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Simplifying_assumptions\"><\/span>Simplifying assumptions:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bid teams cost money. Let&#8217;s call the additional amount spent on a bid team X.<\/p>\n<p>Bid teams produce bids. Let&#8217;s call the number of bids produced Y.<\/p>\n<p>Those bids have a certain average chance of winning. Let&#8217;s call that P.<\/p>\n<p>Each of those bids generate a certain average amount of margin. Let&#8217;s call that M.<\/p>\n<p>If X &gt; YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit reducing.<\/p>\n<p>If X = YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit neutral.<\/p>\n<p>If X &lt; YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit enhancing.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_worked_example\"><\/span>A worked example<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A bid team costs \u00a31 million.<\/p>\n<p>They produce 20 bids.<\/p>\n<p>They win 50% of bids.<\/p>\n<p>Those bids produce, on average 0.5m margin.<\/p>\n<p>X = \u00a31m<\/p>\n<p>YPM = 20 * 50% * 0.5 = \u00a35m<\/p>\n<p>The bid team costs \u00a31m and generates \u00a35m and is a very good investment.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Increasing_investment_increasing_return\"><\/span>Increasing investment, increasing return<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We can now start to explore some of these relationships. To simplify, I am going to assume that bid teams cannot influence contract profitability. (This is obviously not true in the real world).<\/p>\n<p>If you invest 500k in a bid team currently producing 20 bids and winning 50% at 0.5m margin then to make your 500k back you need to either:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Increase your bid production from 20 bids to 22 bids (0.5m = 2 * 50% * 0.5); or<\/li>\n<li>Increase your win rate from 50% to 55% (0.5m = 20 * 5% * 0.5); or<\/li>\n<li>Some combination of the above.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Approximating_the_average_margin_on_a_won_contract\"><\/span>Approximating the average margin on a won contract<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If bid team costs 1m and the average margin on a won contract is \u00a3100k then the bid team needs to win 10 contract a year to break even.<\/p>\n<p>You can approximate the average margin on a won contract for a business by looking at its EBITDA and the number of contracts it delivers.<\/p>\n<p>Organisation X has an EBITDA of 100m and delivers 1,000 contracts. 100m\/1,000 = \u00a3100,000.<\/p>\n<p>To justify a \u00a3250k increase in business development spend in this organisation you would need to win at least 2.5 more contracts a year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_number_of_won_contracts_YP_The_number_of_contracts_bid_multiplied_by_the_probability_of_winning\"><\/span>The number of won contracts = YP (The number of contracts bid multiplied by the probability of winning)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Assume current P is 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Number of won contracts is currently 1,000.<\/p>\n<p>We can work out that the organisation is currently bidding 2,000 to win 1,000. (1000\/50%).<\/p>\n<p>To win 1,003 and justify the additional 250k spend would need to increase P from 50% to 50.15%<\/p>\n<p>Alternatively, you would need to bid 2,005 contracts rather than 2,000.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Basic_Conclusion\"><\/span>Basic Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For large bidding functions, in big contracting businesses, very small increases in winning chances and\/or number of bids produced easily justify significant investment in those teams.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Further_Work\"><\/span>Further Work<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is a very basic framework that ignores time, margin enhancement\/dilution, risk premiums for investment and various upside and downside analyses. Further articles will explore some of these issues.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Overview_and_simple_example-2\"><\/span>Overview and simple example:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To justify a \u00a3250,000 increase in investment in a typical big bidding function in a large corporate requires either:<\/p>\n<p>1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0an increase in winning percentage of less than 1%; or<\/p>\n<p>2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0for the bidding function to be able to produce fewer than 10 extra bids a year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Simplifying_assumptions-2\"><\/span>Simplifying assumptions:<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bid teams cost money. Let&#8217;s call the additional amount spent on a bid team X.<\/p>\n<p>Bid teams produce bids. Let&#8217;s call the number of bids produced Y.<\/p>\n<p>Those bids have a certain average chance of winning. Let&#8217;s call that P.<\/p>\n<p>Each of those bids generate a certain average amount of margin. Let&#8217;s call that M.<\/p>\n<p>If X &gt; YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit reducing.<\/p>\n<p>If X = YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit neutral.<\/p>\n<p>If X &lt; YPM then the additional bid team spend is profit enhancing.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_worked_example-2\"><\/span>A worked example<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A bid team costs \u00a31 million.<\/p>\n<p>They produce 20 bids.<\/p>\n<p>They win 50% of bids.<\/p>\n<p>Those bids produce, on average 0.5m margin.<\/p>\n<p>X = \u00a31m<\/p>\n<p>YPM = 20 * 50% * 0.5 = \u00a35m<\/p>\n<p>The bid team costs \u00a31m and generates \u00a35m and is a very good investment.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Increasing_investment_increasing_return-2\"><\/span>Increasing investment, increasing return<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We can now start to explore some of these relationships. To simplify, I am going to assume that bid teams cannot influence contract profitability. (This is obviously not true in the real world).<\/p>\n<p>If you invest 500k in a bid team currently producing 20 bids and winning 50% at 0.5m margin then to make your 500k back you need to either:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Increase your bid production from 20 bids to 22 bids (0.5m = 2 * 50% * 0.5); or<\/li>\n<li>Increase your win rate from 50% to 55% (0.5m = 20 * 5% * 0.5); or<\/li>\n<li>Some combination of the above.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Approximating_the_average_margin_on_a_won_contract-2\"><\/span>Approximating the average margin on a won contract<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If bid team costs 1m and the average margin on a won contract is \u00a3100k then the bid team needs to win 10 contract a year to break even.<\/p>\n<p>You can approximate the average margin on a won contract for a business by looking at its EBITDA and the number of contracts it delivers.<\/p>\n<p>Organisation X has an EBITDA of 100m and delivers 1,000 contracts. 100m\/1,000 = \u00a3100,000.<\/p>\n<p>To justify a \u00a3250k increase in business development spend in this organisation you would need to win at least 2.5 more contracts a year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_number_of_won_contracts_YP_The_number_of_contracts_bid_multiplied_by_the_probability_of_winning-2\"><\/span>The number of won contracts = YP (The number of contracts bid multiplied by the probability of winning)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Assume current P is 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Number of won contracts is currently 1,000.<\/p>\n<p>We can work out that the organisation is currently bidding 2,000 to win 1,000. (1000\/50%).<\/p>\n<p>To win 1,003 and justify the additional 250k spend would need to increase P from 50% to 50.15%<\/p>\n<p>Alternatively, you would need to bid 2,005 contracts rather than 2,000.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Basic_Conclusion-2\"><\/span>Basic Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For large bidding functions, in big contracting businesses, very small increases in winning chances and\/or number of bids produced easily justify significant investment in those teams.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Further_Work-2\"><\/span>Further Work<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is a very basic framework that ignores time, margin enhancement\/dilution, risk premiums for investment and various upside and downside analyses. Further articles will explore some of these issues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overview and simple example: To justify a \u00a3250,000 increase in investment in a typical big bidding function in a large corporate requires either: 1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0an increase in winning percentage of less than 1%; or 2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0for the bidding function to be able to produce fewer than 10 extra bids a year. Simplifying assumptions: Bid teams cost money&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":2894,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-proposal-management"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Basic Theoretical Framework For Investment in Bid Teams | AutogenAI UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A typical bid team requires either a 0.15% increase in win rate or for the bid team to produce 5 extra bids a year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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