Winning Government Contracts with AI: What the Data Shows in 2026
The argument for using AI in government contracting used to be theoretical. Faster drafting, better compliance coverage, more proposals per sprint. Sensible, but hard to quantify.
Not anymore.
Research now shows a measurable performance gap between teams using purpose-built proposal AI and those that aren’t. Independent analysis has linked AutogenAI adoption with stronger revenue growth, while research involving more than 500 proposal professionals found higher win rates and less time spent per proposal.
Together, the findings answer the question BD directors and capture managers are asking: does AI help you win more government contracts?
The data says yes.
The Performance Gap Between AI Users and Non-Users
The MH&A findings become even more compelling alongside research involving more than 500 proposal professionals across the US, UK, and Australia. That study found that AutogenAI users achieved 22% higher win rates and spent 30% less time per proposal.
Taken together, the research points to an advantage across three outcomes that matter to GovCon teams:
| Outcome | AutogenAI users | Comparison | Source |
| Revenue growth | +12.4% | -7.1% among comparable non-users | MH&A Academic study, 2025 |
| Win rate | 22% higher | — | 500+ proposal professional study |
| Time per proposal | 30% less | — | 500+ proposal professional study |
What the 2025 MH&A Research Measured
AutogenAI commissioned MH&A, an independent research organization, to examine the relationship between AutogenAI adoption and revenue performance. MH&A compared revenue growth between FY23 and FY24 for sampled AutogenAI customers and comparable non-users across the same sectors. The organizations selected had broadly similar turnover levels and staff sizes and operated in similar market conditions.
AutogenAI customers achieved 12.4% revenue growth, while comparable non-users saw revenue decline by 7.1%.
That creates a 19.5 percentage-point difference in revenue growth between the two groups from FY23 and FY24.
What These Numbers Mean for Your Federal Proposal Team
Data only matters if it changes a decision. Here is what these numbers mean for the people responsible for federal proposal outcomes.
For the BD Director
You’re accountable for win rate and pipeline conversion in government contracting. A 22% higher win rate can materially change the return your team gets from the opportunities it pursues. Across a large proposal portfolio, even a modest improvement in win rate can translate into meaningful additional contract value without requiring your team to pursue more opportunities.
The revenue data strengthens that case. MH&A found a 19.5 percentage-point difference in revenue growth between AutogenAI customers and comparable non-users between FY23 and FY24.
For BD leaders evaluating where AI fits into their growth strategy, the question is no longer just how much time the technology can save. It’s what better proposal performance can mean for win rates and revenue.
For a full evaluation framework, see our government contract proposal writing software buyer’s guide.
For the Capture Manager
You manage pipeline quality and make critical go/no-go decisions. A 30% reduction in time per proposal gives your team more capacity to qualify pursuits, develop win strategies, and analyze competitors instead of managing repetitive proposal tasks.
AI reduces the time your team spends on those tasks, so you can focus your attention on the decisions that shape each pursuit: which opportunities to prioritize, where to differentiate, and how to build a stronger win strategy.
See the platform behind these results. Book a demo
Why the AI Advantage Can Compound Over Time
The 19.5 percentage-point difference in revenue growth that MH&A measured over one year shows the scale of the performance gap. The longer-term advantage comes from what teams can do with those gains.
When a team wins more contracts, it builds more past performance, customer evidence, and reusable proposal content. Teams can use those assets to strengthen future proposals, improve their content libraries, and build on what worked in previous pursuits.
Time savings can create a similar effect. If a team spends 30% less time per proposal, it can redirect that capacity into qualifying opportunities, developing stronger win strategies, pursuing more of the right opportunities, and improving proposal quality without adding headcount.
Over time, those advantages can build on each other. Teams capture more knowledge, strengthen their proposal processes, and reinvest time savings into higher-value work. Each pursuit then gives the team more insight and content to carry into the next.
See why GovCon teams that prioritize win rate choose AutogenAI.
How AutogenAI Customers Produce These Results
The MH&A study measured revenue outcomes among AutogenAI customers, not AI users in general. That distinction matters because AutogenAI supports the federal proposal process in government contracting, from opportunity through to compliant submission.
AutogenAI extracts requirements from across the solicitation package, helps teams align responses with evaluation criteria, tracks requirements as the proposal develops, and runs Gamma Review before submission to check whether “shall,” “must,” and “will” requirements are addressed.
These capabilities help teams spend less time managing proposal mechanics and more time strengthening the response. They can build around the solicitation’s requirements and evaluation criteria from the start, maintain compliance as the proposal develops, and identify potential gaps before submission.
For a full breakdown of the five AI capabilities driving these outcomes, see the five AI capabilities federal contracting software must have. For a detailed look at FAR and DFARS compliance automation, see our guide to FAR and DFARS compliance automation.
The Value Guarantee: Only AutogenAI
AutogenAI is the only government contracting software backed by a Value Guarantee: win 10x your software fees or receive your investment back. The MH&A data shows the revenue outcomes are real. The Value Guarantee backs them with a commercial commitment no other platform in the category makes.
Book a demo and see AutogenAI Federal in action.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is MH&A and are they independent of AutogenAI?
MH&A is an independent research and analytics firm. AutogenAI commissioned the study, but MH&A conducted the analysis using publicly available financial data and published its own methodology, data sources, assumptions, and limitations. They have recently rebranded as Avencera.
What does the MH&A research show about AI in government contracting?
The 2025 MH&A study compared revenue growth between FY23 and FY24 for sampled AutogenAI customers and comparable non-users across the same sectors. The organizations selected had broadly similar turnover levels and staff sizes and operated in similar market conditions. AutogenAI customers achieved 12.4% revenue growth, while comparable non-users saw revenue decline by 7.1%, a 19.5 percentage-point difference in revenue growth.
Separately, research involving more than 500 proposal professionals found that AutogenAI users achieved 22% higher win rates and spent 30% less time per proposal.
The full MH&A study is available here.
How much does AI improve win rates for federal contractors?
Research involving more than 500 proposal professionals across the US, UK, and Australia found that AutogenAI users achieved 22% higher win rates.
Individual customer outcomes can be higher. One AutogenAI customer recorded up to a 241% increase in success rate within a year of going live, while another secured a $100M+ federal contract award within two months of adopting AutogenAI. See AutogenAI’s case studies here.
What independent evidence supports AutogenAI’s performance claims?
MH&A independently conducted the revenue analysis using publicly available financial data from annual reports and financial statements. AutogenAI commissioned the research, but MH&A carried out the analysis and published its methodology, data sources, assumptions, and limitations.
The research compared sampled AutogenAI customers with comparable non-users from the same sectors. The organizations had broadly similar turnover levels and staff sizes and operated in similar market conditions, giving MH&A a basis for comparing revenue performance between FY23 and FY24.
The 22% higher win-rate and 30% time-saving figures come from separate research involving more than 500 proposal professionals across the US, UK, and Australia.
How will the performance gap between AI and non-AI GovCon teams change in 2026 and beyond?
The performance data suggests that AI adoption can create advantages that extend beyond faster proposal writing. Teams can reinvest time savings into pursuit strategy, qualification, and proposal quality, while each completed pursuit adds reusable content and knowledge for the next.
As adoption grows, the competitive advantage will increasingly depend on how effectively teams use AI across the proposal process, not simply whether they use it.
